Reference &  User Manual 
  Release Level 7.0 Release Date 2016 12 Revision Level beta  
Last modified on:   Saturday, 5-Nov-16 16:20 CET

Real-time operation, forecasting

The WRM can be run in several distinct "modes" with different interpretation of the time axis:

  • scenario analysis with historical or synthetic data, which can also represent some future period/year;
  • in real-time mode, for/around "today", that can for any historcal part up to "today" be supported by data assimilation subject to the availability of real-time monitoring and operational data;
  • or in combined real-time and forecasting mode (short- to medium-term, days to seasonal).

Scenario analysis

Here the interpretation of the results depends entirely on the nature and interpretation of all input data. Since this will always have to be based on a set of assumptions, a logical extension is stochastic simulation for probabilitic results. This involves ensembles of model runs, sampling possible input vectors from the ranges (distributions) around any one of the scalar or vector parameters together with any distibnc decision variables. The outcome is a set of results, from which statistical inferences can be made, like: "the number of flooding days will not exceed N at 95% probability".

Real-time, forecasting

Here the model is run "around" today:

  • starting at today - N days into the (observed) recent past; given observation during this period, and using various strategies of data asimilation, this historical pre-run can beused to calibrate the model for the best possible performance for "today";
  • beyond today, the continuing model run uses the results of the currrent operational weather forecast (up to a week) and whatever operational and control information is available for the short-term future.
    Beyond that, synthetic time series can be used, based on (scaled) long-term averages over histircal years, seasonal global forecasts (with dynamic downscaling), or GCM/CC scenario model results.

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